George R. R. Martin, in a 2022 interview, looked back at an apparently minor event that changed the course of Westeros forever: the death of Baelor Breakspear. It did not occur in a great battle or a hell of dragon fire. It occurred in a Trial of Seven, a tournament battle that was to resolve a quarrel between a hedge knight.
And yet, according to Martin, that single blow changed everything.
Baelor Breakspear’s Honor Sparked A Generational Tragedy

Baelor, the heir to the throne and the eldest son of King Daeron II, was regarded as a future great ruler by many. Martin referred to him as a possible, very strong, and very competent king. Instead, he died defending the honor of a seemingly insignificant hedge knight, Ser Duncan the Tall, in the events chronicled in Tales of Dunk and Egg.
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“There are a couple of them, in the first Dunk & Egg story, the death of Baelor ‘Breakspear,’ who was the heir, next in line to the throne, and I think would’ve been a very strong and very competent King,” He revealed in an interview with PRH. It is nearly intolerable in retrospect. A prince destined for greatness, cut down in a moment of chivalric loyalty.
Baelor’s death not only deprived the realm of a bright king, but it also diverted the whole Targaryen family. In his absence, the succession ran elsewhere and ultimately resulted in the accession of Aegon V, or Egg, the old squire of The Hedge Knight. The fact that Egg became king triggered another tragedy: the disaster at Summerhall, where the plan to hatch dragons resulted in fire and death. Egg might never have put on the crown had Baelor lived.
Summerhall may never have been burned. The Targaryen legacy could have been different. Naturally, Westeros would not be spared from such disasters as the Great Spring Sickness. This world has never been kind in history. However, Baelor’s absence created a vacuum, one that reshaped royal marriages, political alliances, and ultimately the fragile state of the realm for generations to come. It is amazing to think of how a single decision at a tournament spread over decades.
George R.R. Martin On The Butterfly Effect Behind Westeros’ Most Heartbreaking Losses

Martin’s world thrives on the butterfly effect. Small choices echo loudly. A stolen heirloom. A rash duel. A prince who prefers honor to prudence.
The death of Baelor is, perhaps, the clearest illustration of this theme. He did not stumble in the quest for power. He didn’t die for ambition; he died for principle.
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And that’s what makes it hurt. Westeros was deprived of the king it never had, one who could have brought the dynasty back on its feet before it broke in two.
Instead, history bent around his absence. A single moment in a dusty tourney field became a fork in time. Ultimately, dragons were not the ones that brought down the Targaryans. It was one act of honor.
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